Forbearance Exits Slow With Initial Wave of Expiration Volume Now Past

With most of the largest wave of exit activity in the rearview, active forbearance plan totals rose slightly this week, following a trend of mid-month increases in plan volumes.

According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, the number of active forbearance plans climbed by 8,000 (1%) this week, led by a 12,000 (4.5%) increase in PLS/portfolio loans. FHA/VA plan volumes dropped 4,000 (-1%) while GSE remained essentially unchanged.

As of December 14, 890,000 mortgage holders (1.7%) remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, including 1.1% of GSE, 2.5% of FHA/VA and 2.2% of portfolio/PLS.

Overall, the number of active plans is down 125,000 (-12%) from the same time last month, with the rate of improvement expected to change very little between now and the end of the year. The next opportunity for meaningful declines will occur in early January with nearly 200,000 plans scheduled for extension or removal through the end of the year, nearly half of which are expected to be reaching their final plan expirations.

We will continue to monitor the very latest forbearance data from the McDash Flash dataset and report our findings each week on this blog.


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