August 2021 Mortgage Monitor
Strong Equity Stakes Alone May Not Be Enough to Stave Off Foreclosure Starts, But Will Reduce Inflow of Distressed Properties Into Housing Market
- Though ICE research shows just 7% of homeowners in forbearance have less than 10% equity after including 18 months of deferred payments, the potential for foreclosure activity persists regardless
- While homeowners with limited equity were much more likely to be referred to foreclosure during the early stages of the Great Recession, foreclosure start rates on 120+ day delinquencies have been relatively similar regardless of equity position from 2010 on
- However, high-equity borrowers are more than 40% less likely to face the involuntary liquidation of their home (via short sale, foreclosure sale, deed-in-lieu, etc.) than borrowers with weaker equity positions
- Even among borrowers with less than a 60% combined loan-to-value ratio, 30% of those referred to foreclosure ultimately faced involuntary liquidation, suggesting that many who could sell to avoid losing their home to foreclosure are not always doing so
- Complicating matters further, the white-hot housing market that has been driving increased equity stakes through rising home values has begun to show signs of cooling, albeit slightly
- Annual home price growth slowed from an all-time-high of 19.4% in July to 19% in August, marking the first decline in the rate of annual appreciation in 15 months, with daily tracking data for September suggesting further cooling is on the way
- This may prove to be welcome news for potential homebuyers, as the monthly payment required to buy the average priced home with a 20% down, 30-year fixed rate loan is the highest it’s been since late 2007, despite still historically low interest rates
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Oct. 4, 2021 – Today, the Data & Analytics division of ICE released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. Given ICE’s recent analysis of the strong equity positions of borrowers in forbearance, even when adding 18 months of deferred payments to their debt loads, this month’s report explores the relationship between such equity positions and downstream foreclosure start rates and – ultimately – distressed liquidations. According to Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, the data suggests that the healthy stores of equity in the hands of homeowners currently in forbearance may not be sufficient on its own to ward off foreclosure activity.
“An analysis of our McDash loan-level mortgage performance dataset back to 2007 shows that holding equity in one’s home might not be a blanket backstop to foreclosure activity,” said Graboske. “Borrowers with limited equity were much more likely to be referred to foreclosure during the early stages of the Great Recession than those with strong equity positions. But foreclosure start rates on homeowners who were 120 or more days past due have been relatively similar regardless of equity stakes from 2010 on, with borrowers in the strongest positions only slightly less likely to be referred to foreclosure. So, while we may see some variation in foreclosure activity based on the equity levels of borrowers who are unable to return to making payments post-forbearance, those with strong equity won’t necessarily be immune to foreclosure referral.
“The same data also shows that borrowers with strong equity stakes are more than 40% less likely to face the involuntary liquidation of their homes than borrowers with weaker equity positions, limiting both potential losses on such mortgages and distressed inflow into the housing market. Still, even among borrowers with 40% equity stakes who are referred to foreclosure, some 30% in recent years have lost their home to foreclosure sale, short sale, deed in lieu, etc. What the data doesn’t tell us is why so many people who could avoid involuntary liquidation by selling through traditional channels simply do not end up doing so. Whether that’s due to lack of understanding of their equity positions or the foreclosure process in general is unclear. But given the large number of high equity homeowners currently struggling to make their payments, this represents a significant challenge for the industry: how to educate struggling homeowners on the post-forbearance, foreclosure and – if needed – home sale processes, to limit unneeded stress on homeowners and the market alike.”
However, the report also finds that the white-hot housing market, which has driven homeowner equity to record-breaking heights, is starting to show signs of cooling. According to the ICE HPI, annual home price growth slowed from an all-time-high of 19.4% in July to 19% in August, marking the first decline seen in the rate of annual appreciation in 15 months. Daily tracking data from the company’s Collateral Analytics group suggests further cooling in September as well. Any slowdown in appreciation will likely be welcomed by potential homebuyers, who have seen the monthly payment required to purchase the average priced home with a 20% down 30-year fixed rate mortgage increase by nearly 20% (+$210) over the first nine months of 2021.That brings the average monthly mortgage payment to its highest level since late 2007.
It now requires 21.6% of the median household income to make the monthly mortgage payment on the average home purchase, making housing the least affordable it’s been since 30-year rates rose to nearly 5% back in late 2018. Since the Great Recession, home price growth has begun to slow when such payment-to-income ratios hit approximately 20.5% or higher, but low inventory levels in recent months have led to record home price growth even with tightening affordability. Any further rate increases – such as those seen in the week following the Federal Reserve’s announcement on tapering – will only exacerbate the affordability side of the equation. For example, should home prices and incomes hold steady, but interest rates rise to 3.5%, the average monthly payment would rise by more than $100 and home affordability would hit a 12-year low. At 4%, the payment-to-income ratio would climb above its pre-Great Recession (1995-2003) average. If rates climb back to 5% as in late 2018, it would require $380 (+29%) more per month to buy the average-priced home than it does today, with affordability reaching the lowest levels on record outside of the 2004-2008 period. Much more detail can be found in August 2021 Mortgage Monitor Report.
About Mortgage Monitor
The Data & Analytics division of Black Knight manages the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 160 million historical records. The combined insight of the Black Knight HPI and Collateral Analytics’ home price and real estate data provides one of the most complete, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering 95% of U.S. residential properties down to the ZIP-code level. In addition, the company maintains one of the most robust public property records databases available, covering 99.9% of the U.S. population and households from more than 3,100 counties.
Black Knight’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit: https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/
About Black Knight
Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) is an award-winning software, data and analytics company that drives innovation in the mortgage lending and servicing and real estate industries, as well as the capital and secondary markets. Businesses leverage our robust, integrated solutions across the entire homeownership life cycle to help retain existing customers, gain new customers, mitigate risk and operate more effectively.
Our clients rely on our proven, comprehensive, scalable products and our unwavering commitment to delivering superior client support to achieve their strategic goals and better serving their customers. For more information on Black Knight, please visit www.blackknightinc.com.
About Mortgage Monitor
ICE manages the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 160 million historical records. The combined insight of the ICE Home Price Index and Collateral Analytics’ home price and real estate data provides one of the most complete, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering 95% of U.S. residential properties down to the ZIP-code level. In addition, the company maintains one of the most robust public property records databases available, covering 99.9% of the U.S. population and households from more than 3,100 counties.
ICE’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit: https://www.icemortgagetechnology.com/resources/data-reports
About Intercontinental Exchange
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges – including the New York Stock Exchange – and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity.
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