Forbearance Plan Exits Drop Significantly

Active forbearance plan totals plunged in the first full week of December, led by portfolio held and privately securitized loans.

According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, the number of active forbearance plans fell by 112,000 (-11%) this week, led by a 49,000 (-15%) drop in PLS/portfolio loans. FHA/VA plan volumes dropped 42,000 (-12%) followed by GSE (21,000/-7%). There is a modest opportunity for additional improvement in coming weeks with 33,000 loans still listed with November reviews for extension/removal (roughly half of which are expected to be reaching their final expirations).

As of December 7, 882,000 mortgage holders (1.7%) remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, including 1.1% of GSE, 2.6% of FHA/VA and 2.1% of portfolio/PLS.

Overall, the number of forbearance plans is down by 177,000 (-17%) from the same time last month, with the potential for modest additional improvements through the end of the year. Plan starts over the past four weeks are up 24% from the preceding four-week period, driven by a more than 40% increase among FHA/VA loans (with GSEs seeing a 29% increase). This is a trend we’ll be watching closely as we round out the year.

We will continue to monitor the very latest forbearance data from the McDash Flash dataset and report our findings each week on this blog.