After dropping by more than 150,000 over the past two weeks, we once again saw active forbearance plans edge up slightly in what has become a well-established mid-month trend.
The week’s 11,000 overall increase was driven entirely by a 12,000 rise in plans among Portfolio/PLS loans and offset by a 1,000 decline in GSE forbearances. FHA/VA plan volumes held flat from the week prior.
According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash forbearance tracker, 1.75 million (3.3% of) borrowers remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans as of August 17. That population includes 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 4.0% of portfolio-held and privately securitized mortgages.
Plan volumes are now down 110,000 (-5.9%) from the same time last month, with the rate of improvement slowing slightly in recent weeks.
Total plan starts were higher this week, primarily from a rise in re-start activity. New plan starts, though up slightly from last week, remain below the 5-week moving average.
Meanwhile, plan removals hit their lowest weekly total since late May, but mainly due to the fact that review activity was low in general this past week.
Of those plans reviewed since last Tuesday, 41% resulted in exits, up from the 36% removal rate the same time last month. Activity is poised to pick up significantly with the first wave of final forbearance expirations only weeks away.
Some 200,000 plans are currently slated for review through the final two weeks of August, with approximately one-third of those reaching their final expiration based on current allowable forbearance term lengths. Volumes of final expirations will increase significantly in September and October.
We will continue to monitor the very latest forbearance data from the McDash Flash dataset and report our findings each week on this blog. For monthly deep dives into the matter, be sure to look for our Mortgage Monitor report on the first Monday of every month.