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Familiar Midmonth Uptick in Forbearances

Familiar Midmonth Uptick in Forbearances

Continuing the same mid-month trend we also noted last week, the number of active forbearance plans edged slightly higher once again.

According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash forbearance tracker, there are now 1.76 million borrowers who remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans as of August 24, including 1.9% of GSE, 5.8% of FHA/VA and 4.1% of portfolio held and privately securitized mortgages.

The overall number of active forbearances rose by 12,000 since last Tuesday, driven primarily by a 10,000 increase in plans among portfolio/PLS loans. FHA/VA volumes also rose – though a more modest 3,000 – with GSE plans seeing the week’s only decline (-1,000).

This puts plan volumes down 132,000 from the same time last month for a 7% decline. More than 150,000 plans are slated for review for extension or removal through the final week of August, so there is still some opportunity for modest improvement yet this month.

That number ramps up to nearly 670,000 for September, though, with 415,000 of those plans set to reach their final expiration next month based on current allowable forbearance term lengths.

How those exits manifest themselves will tell us a great deal about what we might expect for the remainder of 2021. We will continue to monitor the very latest forbearance data from the McDash Flash dataset and report our findings each week on this blog. For monthly deep dives into the matter, be sure to look for our Mortgage Monitor report on the first Monday of every month.