As we reported in our January 2021 Mortgage Monitor report, 1.7 million excess serious delinquencies remain due to the economic impacts of COVID-19. Seriously delinquent loans are defined as borrowers who are three or more payments behind on their mortgages, including those in active forbearance.
Looking at a breakdown of where these post-pandemic seriously delinquent loans can be found, a few states stand out. In Hawaii, an excess 5.2% of homeowners remain seriously delinquent, well above the national average of 3.1%. This is likely due in large part to pandemic-related impacts on travel and tourism which have led to Hawaii’s 10.2% unemployment rate, the highest of any state. Over the past 12 months, Hawaii has gone from being one of the states with the lowest share of seriously delinquent mortgages to having the fourth highest rate as of January 2021.
Nevada, another state that relies heavily on tourism, has also seen an outsized impact from COVID-19 on its seriously delinquent population. It has the second highest share of borrowers who have become 90+ days delinquent on their mortgage because of the pandemic at 4.8%.
Likewise in Florida, home of Black Knight’s headquarters, 4.1% of mortgage holders are currently three or more payments behind as a result of the pandemic. Florida, along with Texas and New York, stand out given not only the larger than average per capita impacts they’ve seen from the pandemic, but the size of the populations of such mortgages in these states as well.
Florida currently ranks third in terms of pandemic related serious delinquencies at 152,900 behind only California with 199,000 and Texas with 161,300. Given Florida’s prevalence, we thought it would be worthwhile to break down some of our data from the Sunshine State on a county-level basis in terms of remaining effects of the pandemic on serious delinquency rates and volumes.
In Osceola County, located just south of Orlando and home to Disney World, 7.8% of homeowners are 90 or more days delinquent on their mortgage payments. This stands in stark contrast to the state of affairs before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in January 2020, when just 1% were seriously delinquent.
South Florida takes the next two spots in terms per capita impact. Miami-Dade has jumped from 0.9% of its borrowers being seriously past due in January 2020 to 7.2% in January 2021. Broward, just north of Miami-Dade, went from 0.8% to 6.4% seriously delinquent in the same period.
Even smaller Florida counties are seeing escalated numbers of these seriously past due homeowners as a result of the pandemic. Polk County, located in Central Florida, has seen its share of seriously delinquent homeowners jump from 1.1% to 5.9% year-over-year. This represents 5,120 more borrowers who are three or more payments behind than last January. Clay County, a more rural area outside of Jacksonville, has seen this number jump from 500 to 2,300. This means that 5.9% of borrowers there are seriously delinquent.
As the country continues to recover from the wide-reaching effects of COVID-19, it is worth keeping an eye on these seriously delinquent borrowers, especially in locations with a high concentration of them, such as Florida.