New data released today from our McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that forbearance plans rose by 20,000 this week, continuing a trend of rising numbers late in calendar months. Exits remain muted, with only 41,000 borrowers leaving their plans this week. This means the week ranks among the lowest three weeks in terms of exits since the recovery began last summer. With a couple more days remaining in the month, there is modest opportunity for volume improvement next week – some 172,000 forbearance plans are set to expire at the end of the month.
The GSEs have the best scenario on their hands in terms of improvement among investor classes. There was a decline of 4,000 active GSE plans, and the rate of improvement among GSE-held mortgages continues to significantly outpace other investor classes. GSE forbearances are now down 4% month-over-month, roughly four times the rate of decline seen among FHA/VA loans (down 1%) and portfolio-held and privately securitized forbearances (down 1.3%). The decline seen among GSE loans in forbearance (4,000) was tempered by an increase of 9,000 FHA/VA forbearance plans and an increase of 15,000 portfolio/private plans.
As this week marks yet another round of muted improvement and limited removals it will be worth it to continue to monitor the situation closely. We will have another weekly look at the national forbearance data published on this blog next Friday, Feb. 5.